UltraGreen.ai: The AI Mirage — What Investors Aren’t Being Told

UltraGreen.ai’s recent listing has raised pressing questions among investors, analysts, and observers alike. Behind its futuristic branding, market watchers suggest the company is fundamentally a single-product trader attempting to repackage itself with “AI” appeal.

## 1. The “AI-Washing” Problem

Despite the “.ai” appended to its name, its financial backbone remains tied almost entirely to Indocyanine Green (ICG).

In FY2024, ICG accounted for **94.2%** of total revenue — a hallmark of over-concentration.

The touted “AI platform” is early-stage, with near-zero revenue contribution. This has led many to liken the strategy to the **dot-com era**, where companies added buzzwords to inflate valuation multiples.

## 2. Supply Chain Fragility

UltraGreen does not manufacture its own products. Instead, it depends on third-party CMOs—with its key active ingredient currently sourced primarily from **one supplier**.

This creates:

- Concentration risk

- Little bargaining power

- Exposure to delays

A disruption in 2024 already caused months-long bottlenecks.

Observers note that one factory incident could temporarily wipe out inventory.

## 3. Deteriorating Profitability

UltraGreen’s recent financials show key stress indicators:

- Net margins fell from **47.7%** → **36.6%**

- FX losses totaled **US$7.0M** in 1H2025

- The IPO price implies an **82.3% dilution** relative to NAV

These trends point toward strained profitability and currency exposure problems.

## 4. Compliance Red Flags

The prospectus discloses:

- A **“major deficiency”** flagged by Irish regulators (HPRA)

- Liability surrounding **off-label usage**

- U.S. market restrictions due to **competitor exclusivity** until 2026

Such issues highlight regulatory fragility.

## 5. SGX Structural Risk

Industry commentary suggests the Singapore Exchange (SGX-ST) faces:

- Competency gaps in reviewing complex listings

- Over-analysis of minor get more info issues

Critics argue this environment may enable companies to slip through with optimistic narratives despite financial red flags.

## 6. Governance & Control

Post-IPO, the Renew Group retains **~61.9%** control.

This means:

- Minority shareholders have limited influence

- Potential conflicts of interest persist due to overlapping leadership roles.

## 7. Risks to the Core Business

UltraGreen’s reliance on ICG faces new threats:

- Emerging **spectral imaging** technologies that don’t require injection dyes

- A recently sold PACS business, reducing proven tech revenue

- An AI platform that the prospectus admits may contain **bugs and defects**

This raises doubts about whether the company’s pivot toward AI is sustainable or merely cosmetic.

## Final Thoughts

UltraGreen.ai’s prospectus, corporate structure, and market positioning collectively reveal a company straddling old-world products and new-world claims.

Investors should approach with careful due diligence.

This analysis is based solely on the UltraGreen.ai Limited Prospectus dated 26 Nov 2025 and is provided for informational and educational purposes only.